I agree with your conclusion (Trump loses), but I think it's simpler that it seems. I think the COA is saying that they do not think there is any judicial review in this case, because the current president waived the executive privilege claims...which means the Archivist did really make any determination. I don't think the statute is designed to create a battle between former and current president, but that when the current prez says not asserting privilege, that's the end of the matter. And the statute does not provide for any judicial review. Great article.